Rumor: iPhone Fold launch to push foldable phone ASP up 18% in 2026, says Counterpoint

Apple's entry into the foldable phone market this September will be one of the main reasons the average selling price (ASP) of foldable smartphones rises 18% in 2026, according to a new report from Counterpoint Research surfaced by 9to5Mac on July 2 2026.

Counterpoint forecasts the global foldable smartphone ASP at $1,485 for 2026, up from roughly $1,259 in 2025 and $1,151 in 2024. That is the steepest year-over-year jump in the category's history, and Counterpoint attributes a meaningful share of it to the iPhone Fold's rumored $2,500-$3,000 price band.

The report breaks the category into two form factors with very different dynamics:

• Book-type foldables (the form factor the iPhone Fold is widely expected to use) are rising in ASP, driven by larger displays, better hinges, bigger batteries, improved cameras, and productivity-focused features.
• Clamshell foldables (Z Flip-style devices) are falling in ASP, as more brands enter and production scales, putting them closer to premium bar-type smartphones in price.

The book-type form factor now accounts for a larger share of total foldable shipments, which is what is driving the overall ASP higher. Counterpoint specifically notes that "Apple's entry in the foldable market is also expected to further boost the upward ASP trend by keeping market attention on high-priced segments."

What Counterpoint actually said

The report makes three claims worth pulling out:

1. The $1,600-$2,000 segment is expected to nearly double, from 30% of shipments in 2025 to 58% in 2026. The $2,000+ segment is expected to slip from 3% to 2%, but Counterpoint attributes that slip to the $1,600-$2,000 segment absorbing the high end as more brands enter it.
2. Apple's iPhone Fold is expected to land in the $2,000+ segment, not the $1,600-$2,000 band. IDC has separately predicted the iPhone Fold's ASP at $2,500, with some configurations reaching $3,000.
3. Software continuity and app support are the soft factor that the report says Apple will bring to foldables, helping "establish foldables as a higher-value segment within the smartphone market."

How this lines up with the iPhone Fold leak history

The Counterpoint and IDC figures are consistent with the spread of iPhone Fold pricing rumors over the past 6 months:

• Ming-Chi Kuo (December 2025): $2,000-$2,500 starting
• Ross Young (March 2026): $2,100-$2,300
• The Information (April 2026): $2,400 starting, with higher storage tiers pushing above $2,800
• IDC (June 2026): $2,500 average, $3,000 high-tier
• Counterpoint (July 2026): the iPhone Fold is in the $2,000+ segment

That is a remarkably tight cluster around $2,300-$2,500 as the entry point. The only major divergence is on storage tiers, where Apple's historical $100-$200 step between tiers could put the 1 TB model in the $2,800-$3,000 range.

What this means for the broader foldable market

Two practical implications for the rest of the foldable phone market:

• Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 is now in a tight spot. The Z Fold 7 launched at $1,899. If Samsung holds the Z Fold 8 at the same price, it is anchored $400-$600 below the iPhone Fold. If Samsung moves up to close the gap, it cedes the value-tier positioning. Either choice has consequences for the Z Fold 8's product positioning.
• Chinese foldable makers (Honor, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi) will likely lean into hardware specs at sub-$1,500 prices. The Magic V5, Find N6, X Fold 4, and Mix Fold 5 are all in that band. The iPhone Fold's arrival at the top will probably push them to compete on hardware-per-dollar in the $1,000-$1,500 range, which is good for buyers.

What is still uncertain

Three things to watch before launch:

1. Whether the iPhone Fold ships in the $2,000+ segment or a higher tier. Counterpoint uses IDC's $2,500 average as the assumed anchor. If Apple surprises with a $1,999 starting price (which the supply chain would not support, but is the only way the rumor would shift), the report's $1,485 ASP forecast would be too high.
2. Whether Apple will subsidize the iPhone Fold with carrier trade-in deals. US carriers often subsidize $300-$500 of the iPhone Pro Max with trade-ins. If Apple and the carriers run similar promotions for the iPhone Fold, the headline $2,500 price effectively becomes $2,000, and the segment math shifts.
3. Yield on the hinge and inner display. The iPhone Fold's hinge was the rumored production bottleneck through Q1 2026. If yields are still constrained at launch, Apple may have to price higher than the IDC midpoint to maintain margin.

What to do if you are considering buying

If you have been waiting on the iPhone Fold, the Counterpoint and IDC numbers say the entry price is realistically $2,300-$2,500, not the $1,899 that some early rumors floated. If you have been considering a Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 instead, the iPhone Fold's arrival is the strongest argument for waiting - if Apple ships in volume, the Z Fold 8 will likely be discounted within 60-90 days of the iPhone Fold's launch.

Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone Fold alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in early September 2026, with shipping starting late September.